What Are Futures in Sports Betting? An Australian Guide

How futures in sports betting work

A futures market sets out an outcome that will be determined over a competition, season or other defined period. Depending on the provider, market and applicable restrictions, it may be offered before a competition begins or after it has started.

To place a futures bet, a bettor chooses a market and a selection, enters a stake and sees the odds and other terms offered. If the bet is accepted, the selection remains open until it is settled under the applicable rules, unless an early-settlement option is available and used.

For example, imagine a pre-season bet of $10 at decimal odds of 6.00 on an AFL team to win the premiership. The market is the premiership winner, the selection is the chosen team, and the stake is $10. This is a hypothetical example, not a current offer.

Winning the premiership is the outcome the selection needs, but the market rules determine how and when the bet is settled. An operator does not necessarily pay immediately when a title is awarded.

Futures, outright bets, match bets and multis

These terms describe different features of a bet. They can overlap, but they are not interchangeable, and providers may use their own labels.

Also distinguish sports futures from financial futures. A financial futures contract is a derivative product; it is not an ordinary fixed-odds sports wager.

• Futures bet: A bet on a broader or longer-term outcome, such as a season award or finishing position.
• Outright betting: Often refers to betting on the overall winner of a competition. An outright winner is a common type of future, but not every future is a winner market.
• Match bet: A bet on an individual match, such as which team wins that match.
• Multi: A single bet combining selections. A future may be included if the provider permits it and the relevant terms allow it.
• All-in: A settlement condition, not another name for a future. It can affect whether a non-participating selection receives a refund.

Common types of sports futures markets

Sports betting futures can cover teams, players and different stages of a competition. The examples below illustrate the types of markets; they do not mean every provider currently offers them.

The exact wording matters. A top-four market, for instance, could refer to a regular-season ladder rather than the final position after finals. Similarly, a player statistic market may specify which games count and who is eligible.

As an example of an operator-specific condition, Sportsbet's published rules for its AFL per-game season-statistical-leader market refer to the home-and-away season and require a player to have played at least 70% of their team's games to be eligible to win. That threshold should not be assumed to apply to another provider or market.

• Competition winner: A team to win the AFL premiership or NRL grand final.
• Finishing position: A team to finish in the top four, with the relevant stage defined in the market.
• Season award: A player to win the Brownlow Medal.
• Season performance: A player to lead a specified statistic, subject to the market's counting and eligibility rules.
• Indian cricket: Hypothetically, an Indian Premier League team to win the IPL tournament, rather than an individual match. Current availability from an Australian-licensed provider has not been established.

Futures odds, returns and implied probability

Australian betting prices are commonly displayed as decimal odds. For an ordinary winning cash bet, the total return is the stake multiplied by the decimal odds. The return includes the original stake; profit is the total return minus that stake.

Using the hypothetical $10 AFL premiership bet at 6.00, the following calculation assumes ordinary settlement, no deductions and no applicable adjustments:

• Winning total return: $10 × 6.00 = $60, including the $10 stake.
• Profit if the bet wins: $60 − $10 = $50.
• If the bet loses: the $10 stake is lost.
• Price-implied probability: 1 ÷ 6.00 is approximately 16.7%.

What the price does and does not tell you

The implied probability is a way to express the quoted price. It is not a prediction that the selection has exactly a 16.7% chance of winning, and it does not by itself establish whether the bet is good value.

Prices can also include a bookmaker's margin. In a complete market with mutually exclusive outcomes and one winner, adding the implied probabilities for every possible outcome may produce a total above 100%. That excess is called an overround; it is not the bookmaker's realised profit.

Futures odds can change as results, injuries, participation and betting activity affect a market. A team that performs well may later be quoted at shorter odds. A conventional fixed-odds bet normally keeps the price accepted when it was placed, subject to its terms and any applicable adjustments.

Betting early can mean making a decision with less information and having money committed for longer. Waiting may provide more information, but the available price may have changed or the market may no longer be offered. Neither approach guarantees a better price or outcome.

Futures bet settlement: withdrawals, ties and changed competitions

The market title alone may not explain what happens if a player withdraws, a season is shortened or an award is shared. Rules vary by provider, sport and market, so read the terms that apply to the specific selection before placing a bet.

In an all-in market, a selection can remain a losing bet even if the player or team does not participate, depending on the applicable terms. Sportsbet identifies its Brownlow and Coleman Medal futures as all-in markets. That is an illustration of its rules for those markets, not a rule for every award bet.

Ties can also change the calculation. Where dead-heat rules apply, a return can be reduced when selections share an outcome. Sportsbet specifies dead-heat settlement for tied Brownlow and Coleman outcomes in the relevant markets; other markets may have different terms.

A shortened or disrupted competition does not automatically make every bet void. Some rules specify a completion threshold, while others contain different conditions or exceptions. Check the market's cancellation and settlement provisions rather than assuming the stake will be returned.

Finally, the result used for settlement may not be the result shown after a later appeal or correction. For example, Sportsbet's published Brownlow rule settles on the official result presented at the count and disregards later changes. Check the current rules for the exact market rather than treating that approach as universal.

• Participation: Must the selected player or team take part, and is the market all-in?
• Competition changes: What happens if the event is cancelled, shortened or its format changes?
• Ties: Is dead-heat settlement used, and how can it affect the return?
• Official result: Which result counts for settlement, and are later changes recognised?
• Timing: When do the terms allow the market to be settled?

Cash out, committed funds and gambling support

Cash out is an offer to settle an eligible bet before its normal settlement. It is not a right to withdraw the original stake. An offer can be less than the stake, can change or be withdrawn, and may not be available at all.

Sportsbet says its cash-out feature is discretionary and may be unavailable when a market is suspended or not being traded, among other circumstances. Other providers' conditions can differ. Do not assume you will be able to cash out a futures bet, or that an offer will produce a profit.

Before committing money for a season or tournament, consider whether you can afford to have it unavailable for that period and to lose the entire stake. Not betting is always an option.

For free, confidential support in Australia, Gambling Help Online provides telephone support through the Gambling Helpline on 1800 858 858, available 24 hours a day, seven days a week. BetStop is the national self-exclusion register for licensed interactive wagering services. Links to both resources are included in the sources.

Futures betting in Australia and the IPL example

Online wagering in Australia is regulated at Commonwealth and state or territory levels. The Australian Communications and Media Authority, or ACMA, maintains a register readers can use to check whether a gambling provider is licensed to offer services to Australians.

A provider's presence on the register does not establish that a particular market is currently offered, available in every location or appropriate in every circumstance. Check the named market, its terms and any restrictions relevant to where you are.

ACMA says online in-play sports betting is prohibited. Telephone and certain place-based services can be treated differently. The specific event and contingency matter, so it would be misleading to assume that every tournament-winner market automatically becomes prohibited online as soon as the first match of a season begins.

An IPL tournament-winner bet is a useful hypothetical example of an outright future. However, an overseas page discussing that market does not establish that a particular Australian-licensed provider currently offers it. Check the provider and the actual market rather than relying on the example.

Betting on an Indian competition from Australia is also a different question from placing a bet while physically in India. An Australian licence does not establish that a service is lawful in India, and this guide does not attempt to explain India's national or state betting laws.

• Check the provider using ACMA's register.
• Read the specific market description, accepted odds and settlement terms.
• Check the restrictions relevant to your location and the particular bet.

FAQ

What is an example of a futures bet?

A hypothetical pre-season bet on an AFL team to win the premiership is a futures bet. It concerns the overall competition winner rather than one match. The outcome and settlement timing depend on the named market and its rules.

Are futures bets the same as outright bets?

An outright winner bet is a common type of future, but futures can also cover outcomes such as a top-four finish or a season award. Providers may use the labels differently, so read the market description rather than relying on its name alone.

Can a futures bet be settled before the season ends?

Potentially. A market may be settled before the season ends if its outcome has already been determined and the applicable terms permit settlement. The timing depends on the provider and the specific market, so early settlement should not be assumed.

Can I cash out a futures bet early?

Sometimes, if the provider offers cash out on that bet and an offer is available. The amount may be below the original stake, and the offer can change or disappear. Cash out is not assured or necessarily profitable.

What happens if a player or team withdraws?

Check the market's participation, withdrawal and all-in terms. A refund is not automatic: some all-in selections can remain losing bets even if they do not participate. The Brownlow example in this guide illustrates one operator's rule, not a universal policy.

Can Australians bet on an Indian competition?

An IPL tournament-winner market is a valid hypothetical futures example, but its current availability from an Australian-licensed provider has not been established here. Check the provider, the market and its terms. That does not establish the legal position for someone placing a bet while in India.