The Voice referendum betting odds: historical prices and the result

What were the reported Voice referendum odds?

Three reports provide useful, though incomplete, snapshots of BlueBet’s prices. The earlier record contains only a Yes price; the two later reports include both selections.

In decimal odds, the shorter price is the lower number. In a two-selection market, the shorter-priced selection is the one the bookmaker has priced as more likely to occur.

These figures come from reporting about BlueBet rather than an original bookmaker price archive. They should not be treated as prices available from every provider, or as a complete record of the market.

• June 2023, market opening: The Guardian reported that BlueBet opened with Yes at $1.70, making it the opening favourite. The report did not give a precise opening date or a corresponding No price.
• 19 September 2023 report: BettingSite.com.au attributed prices of No $1.15 and Yes $4.75 to BlueBet. The article’s publication time does not necessarily establish when the prices were observed.
• 13 October 2023: Bets.com.au listed BlueBet’s No price at $1.09 and Yes at $5.75, marked correct on that date. The report did not establish the observation time or the market’s closing price.

How did the reported odds change before the vote?

Yes was the reported favourite when BlueBet opened its market in June. By the September snapshot, No had become the shorter-priced selection, and it remained the favourite in the report marked correct on 13 October.

Between the two paired snapshots, No shortened from $1.15 to $1.09, while Yes lengthened from $4.75 to $5.75. For a fixed stake, a shorter decimal price produces a smaller potential return if that selection wins; a longer price produces a larger potential return.

The records do not show every adjustment between those dates. The comparison therefore does not establish a continuous trend or explain why the prices changed.

The Guardian also reported in September that several other named operators, including Sportsbet and Betfair, had said they would not offer a Voice market. That dated reporting does not establish that BlueBet was the only provider throughout the campaign.

What was the Voice referendum result?

The Australian Electoral Commission confirmed the final Voice referendum result on 6 November 2023. No received a national majority of formal votes, and the proposal was not carried.

All six states recorded a No majority. The Australian Capital Territory recorded a Yes majority, while the Northern Territory recorded a No majority.

The No selection was both the favourite in the cited 13 October odds snapshot and the eventual national result. That is a match in direction, not proof that the outcome was certain beforehand or that the odds forecast the final vote share.

• No: 9,452,792 formal votes, or 60.06%.
• Yes: 6,286,894 formal votes, or 39.94%.
• Informal votes: 155,545, reported separately from the formal-vote percentages.

Why the double-majority rule mattered

Changing the Australian Constitution through a referendum requires a double majority: a national majority of voters must vote Yes, and Yes must also win a majority in at least four of the six states.

Votes from the ACT and Northern Territory count towards the national total. However, territory-wide results do not count as state results for the second part of the test. In 2023, neither requirement was met: No won nationally and in all six states.

For example, a national Yes majority alone would not be enough to pass a proposal if fewer than four states voted Yes. That constitutional rule should not be confused with a bookmaker’s settlement rules. The historical BlueBet terms were not established in the available records, so it is not possible to say how a different hypothetical result would have been settled.

How to interpret the Yes and No referendum odds

Decimal odds express a potential total return for each dollar staked. In a simple fixed-odds example, multiply the stake by the decimal price to calculate the return if the selection wins. The total includes the original stake; profit is the total return minus that stake. If the selection loses, the stake is lost.

The following are hypothetical calculations using the reported 13 October prices. They are not current offers or verified examples of how individual bets were settled.

• $10 on No at $1.09: a winning selection would produce a $10.90 total return, including the $10 stake, for a profit of $0.90.
• $10 on Yes at $5.75: if Yes had won, the total return would have been $57.50, including the stake, for a profit of $47.50. Yes did not win.

Implied probability is not vote share

A decimal price can be converted into a raw implied percentage by dividing one by the odds and multiplying the result by 100. Using the reported 13 October prices gives the following approximate figures.

The two raw percentages add to more than 100%. The amount above 100% is the overround in this two-selection snapshot, reflecting a feature of bookmaker pricing. The figures are not two fair probabilities, and prices can also reflect other pricing considerations.

Most importantly, the roughly 91.74% figure for No does not mean the bookmaker predicted that 91.74% of people would vote No. It is a raw percentage associated with the priced outcome, before accounting for the margin and other pricing effects. The AEC’s 60.06% No figure, by contrast, is the actual share of formal votes.

• No at $1.09: 1 divided by 1.09, multiplied by 100, is approximately 91.74%.
• Yes at $5.75: 1 divided by 5.75, multiplied by 100, is approximately 17.39%.
• Combined raw implied percentage: approximately 109.13%.

Why can betting odds and opinion polls differ?

A poll and a betting market provide different kinds of information. A poll estimates responses from a sample, using a particular question and survey method. A bookmaker offers prices on an outcome; those prices may reflect its assessment, margin, risk management and betting activity.

The way a poll asks a question can matter. In a 2023 split-sample trial, Essential compared a forced Yes-or-No question with an approach that allowed respondents to say they were unsure and then asked about their leaning. The published results differed between the methods.

These are general reasons to read polls and prices carefully, not established explanations for BlueBet’s movements. Neither a poll nor a betting price is an official count or a guarantee of the outcome.

Can Australians bet on political events?

Political betting is not automatically available for every event or through every operator. The Northern Territory’s declared-events schedule includes political elections for its licensed bookmakers, subject to its conditions. That jurisdiction-specific framework does not establish that every referendum or political event is approved for betting throughout Australia.

The 2023 Voice referendum is complete and its result has been confirmed. No current offer on that completed outcome was verified, and the prices discussed here are historical. Rules, provider listings and market availability can change.

For anyone considering a different event, the Australian Communications and Media Authority’s register can help check whether an online wagering provider is licensed and identify its licensing authority. A provider listing does not itself verify an individual market or its terms.

• Check whether the particular event and market are actually available.
• Check the provider’s licence listing with ACMA rather than relying solely on the provider’s own description.
• Read the applicable market and settlement rules before making a decision.
• For support, the free, confidential Gambling Helpline is available 24 hours a day on 1800 858 858. Gambling Help Online also provides chat and information about BetStop self-exclusion.

FAQ

What were the final Voice referendum betting odds?

A definitive closing price was not established. The latest sourced pre-vote snapshot, marked correct on 13 October 2023, attributed No at $1.09 and Yes at $5.75 to BlueBet. The source did not establish when those prices were observed or what the market offered at closing.

Did the betting favourite match the referendum result?

Yes. No was the shorter-priced selection in the reported 13 October snapshot, and No received 60.06% of formal votes nationally. The match shows that the favourite and the result pointed in the same direction; it does not mean the outcome was certain or that the price forecast the vote share.

Were referendum betting odds the same as opinion polls?

No. Odds were offered prices on an outcome, while polls estimated responses from samples using particular questions and methods. Polling figures can differ depending on how questions and unsure responses are handled. Neither prices nor polls are a substitute for the official count.

Did $1.09 mean 91.74% of voters were expected to vote No?

No. Approximately 91.74% is the raw implied percentage calculated from decimal odds of $1.09. It relates to the priced outcome, not the expected share of No votes, and it does not remove the bookmaker margin or other pricing effects.

Can I still bet on the 2023 Voice referendum?

The referendum has already taken place and the result has been confirmed. No current offer on that completed outcome was verified. The prices in this article are historical observations, not live betting offers.

What did the Voice referendum need to pass?

It needed a national majority of Yes votes and Yes majorities in at least four of the six states. Territory votes counted towards the national total, but territory-wide results did not count as state results. This constitutional test is separate from any bookmaker’s market-settlement terms.