Referendum betting in Australia: availability, odds and rules

Can Australians bet on referendum outcomes?

Some referendum markets have existed historically. In September 2023, The Guardian reported that BlueBet was offering a market on the Voice referendum, while several larger bookmakers had decided not to offer one. That report establishes a past example, not a current offer or licence status.

Political betting is a broader category than referendum betting. A bookmaker might list election markets without offering a market on a referendum. Equally, an old advertisement or search result does not establish that a market is still open.

National law regulates online and telephone gambling services. The Australian Communications and Media Authority, or ACMA, identifies unlicensed wagering services among those prohibited from being offered to people in Australia. However, finding an operator on a licence register is only the first check: it does not establish approval or availability for a particular referendum.

How event rules and approvals differ

The licensing jurisdiction of the operator, approval of the event and the customer’s location are separate questions. An operator can hold a wagering licence without being authorised to offer every political event. Even an approved event may not have an open market, or may not be available to every customer.

In NSW, the declared-event rules for bookmakers to which that framework applies expressly include national plebiscites or referendums within political events, subject to conditions. That wording is not blanket approval for every referendum, and it does not establish that the same NSW licensing rules govern every interstate-licensed service used by someone in NSW.

Victoria’s published approved-event list includes specified elections, but the supplied research found no explicit referendum entry. The Northern Territory declaration lists political elections without expressly identifying referendums. Neither listing, on its own, proves that a particular referendum is approved or prohibited.

The research did not establish a specific referendum approval in Queensland or event-specific conclusions for South Australia, Tasmania, Western Australia or the ACT. For a proposed market, check with the operator and its licensing regulator rather than assuming an election approval covers a referendum.

Where to check for an open referendum market

The availability check supplied for this article did not verify a current referendum market as at 5 November 2026. Markets can open, close or change, so check directly before relying on that finding.

Start with ACMA’s register of licensed interactive wagering providers, then check the licence with the relevant state or territory regulator. If you find an apparent offer, confirm all of the following before placing a bet:

• Event approval: Is this specific referendum approved for the operator under its applicable licence and rules?
• Open market: Is the listing accepting bets now, rather than showing an old or suspended event?
• Selection wording: What exact outcome does the selection require?
• Location eligibility: Is the market available to you where you are physically located?
• Settlement and payment terms: How will the outcome be decided, and what conditions apply to deposits and withdrawals?

How betting on referendum outcomes works

Betting on referendum outcomes begins with a defined proposition, not simply a general opinion about a vote. In a hypothetical fixed-odds market, a selection might ask whether a proposal passes. Another possible selection might be based on whether the national Yes vote exceeds a specified threshold.

Those conditions can produce different answers. The wording of the actual market would determine what must happen for a selection to win; the two examples here are illustrations, not verified current products.

For information about the vote itself, rather than a wager, consult the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) for federal referendums or the relevant electoral authority for another vote. State and overseas referendums can have different rules from federal constitutional referendums.

Why a federal Yes majority is not always a pass

A federal constitutional proposal requires a double majority. More than half of the national formal vote must support it, and a majority of voters in at least four of the six states must also vote Yes. A formal vote is a valid vote counted under electoral rules; informal ballots are not part of the formal-vote percentage.

Votes from the ACT, the NT and external territories count towards the national total. The territories do not, however, count as states when determining whether the proposal has a majority in at least four states.

Consider a hypothetical proposal that receives more than half of the national formal vote but wins a Yes majority in only three states. It would not pass. A hypothetical selection based on a national Yes majority could therefore have a different outcome from one based on passage.

This distinction applies to federal constitutional referendums. Do not assume every vote described as a referendum uses the same test.

How to read referendum betting odds

Referendum betting odds are a price for a specified outcome. Decimal odds indicate the total return on a winning fixed-odds bet, including the original stake. The price can change before a bet is placed.

For illustration only, a $10 bet at decimal odds of 2.00 would return $20 in total if it won: the $10 stake plus $10 profit. If it lost, the $10 stake would be lost. These are hypothetical figures, not an offer or current market odds.

The simple implied probability at 2.00 is 1 divided by 2.00, or 50%. That percentage is not automatically an unbiased estimate of the outcome’s likelihood. Bookmaker margin and market conditions can affect the price.

A poll is different again: it reports respondents’ stated views at a particular time. Neither a poll nor a betting price is the official result or a guaranteed prediction. In particular, a national Yes poll may not answer the same question as a market on whether a federal proposal passes.

Settlement rules to check before betting

Settlement is the process by which a bookmaker decides the result of a bet. Before placing one, read both the event-specific wording and the general rules. The terms should tell you what outcome is being measured and which result source or trigger the operator will use.

The AEC is the authoritative source for federal referendum results, but a bookmaker’s terms may specify a different settlement trigger. Do not assume that every market waits for a final AEC declaration, or that a cancelled or postponed vote automatically leads to a refund.

Published rules show why this matters. Sportsbet’s election rules allow the use of projections and early data. Sky Bet’s UK referendum rules use the official result. These are examples of different contract designs: the election rules are not referendum rules, and the UK example is not evidence of an Australian offer.

A suspended market may stop accepting new bets without necessarily voiding bets already accepted. If the terms are unclear, ask the operator before betting and keep a copy of the relevant wording.

• Check the exact proposition and the definition of a winning outcome.
• Identify the named result source and whether settlement uses a projection, declaration or final result.
• Read the rules for postponement, cancellation, withdrawal and rescheduling.
• Check how recounts, disputes and legal challenges are treated.
• Find out what suspension means for bets already accepted.
• Check whether specific market rules take priority over general terms.

Costs, payment restrictions and support

A losing bet can cost the entire stake. Before betting, consider whether you can afford that loss and whether account controls, such as limits offered by the provider, would help you manage your spending. Controls do not guarantee protection from gambling harm.

Since 11 June 2024, online and telephone wagering operators have been unable to accept deposits using credit cards, credit-card-linked funds such as digital wallets, or digital currency. They also cannot provide or facilitate credit. Check the operator’s terms rather than assuming a particular alternative deposit or withdrawal method is available.

Gambling Help Online offers free, confidential support 24 hours a day across Australia on 1800 858 858. BetStop is a free national self-exclusion service covering all Australian-licensed online and telephone wagering providers. It does not cover in-person gambling or unlicensed sites. For BetStop assistance, call 1800 238 786.

If you are considering a prediction market instead, check its legal and financial risks carefully. MoneySmart says no prediction-market operators are licensed as financial markets to operate in Australia. That statement concerns financial-market licensing and is not a ruling on every individual platform.

FAQ

Is referendum betting legal in Australia?

The evidence does not support a blanket yes-or-no answer for every operator and event. NSW rules for bookmakers covered by its declared-event framework expressly contemplate national referendums subject to conditions, while national law regulates wagering services. Check the operator’s licence, approval for the particular event and any restrictions relevant to your location.

Which bookmakers offer referendum betting?

The research dated 5 November 2026 did not independently verify a current referendum market with an Australian-licensed operator. That limited finding does not prove none exists. Check ACMA’s register and the licensing regulator, then confirm the actual event listing, approval, market terms and location eligibility.

Are referendum odds the same as polling results?

No. Odds are a price for a defined outcome, while a poll reports the views of sampled respondents at a particular time. Neither is the official result. For a federal constitutional referendum, a poll about national Yes support may also measure something different from a market on whether the proposal passes.

What happens if a referendum is postponed or cancelled?

There is no verified universal rule. The relevant market terms may address postponement, cancellation, withdrawal or rescheduling, and event-specific rules may differ from general terms. Read them before betting; do not assume an existing bet will automatically be refunded.

Does a national Yes majority mean a federal proposal passes?

Not necessarily. A federal constitutional proposal also needs a Yes majority in at least four of the six states. Votes from territories count towards the national formal-vote total, but the territories do not count as states for the second part of the test.

Can a referendum market settle before the official result?

That depends on the specific market terms. Published election rules can allow projections or early data, while one published UK referendum rule uses the official result. Neither example establishes a universal Australian referendum practice. Check the named result source and settlement trigger.

Can I use a credit card to fund online wagering?

Australian online and telephone wagering operators cannot accept deposits by credit card, credit-card-linked funds such as digital wallets, or digital currency. They also cannot provide or facilitate credit. Check an operator’s current terms to see which permitted payment methods it actually offers.