Odds on the Next President of the United States: Candidates and Market Guide

2028 US presidential election odds: a dated snapshot

The following next US president odds are selected prices from Sportsbet’s market titled “US Presidential Election 2028”. They were recorded when the page was checked on 5 November 2026 at approximately 7:50 pm UTC, or 6 November at approximately 6:50 am AEDT. The check time is not necessarily the time each price last changed.

Each percentage is the raw implied probability, calculated as 100 divided by the decimal odds and rounded to one decimal place. The list is a partial field from one bookmaker, not a comparison across operators or a complete list of potential candidates.

• Jon Ossoff: 4.50, or 22.2% raw implied probability.
• JD Vance: 6.50, or 15.4%.
• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 7.50, or 13.3%.
• Gavin Newsom: 9.00, or 11.1%.
• Marco Rubio: 10.00, or 10.0%.
• Ron DeSantis: 12.00, or 8.3%.
• Josh Shapiro: 19.00, or 5.3%.

What the snapshot can and cannot tell you

Ossoff had the shortest price among these selections at the research check. That means his price carried the highest raw implied probability in this comparison; it does not establish that he will win, that every bookmaker agreed or that he was a confirmed nominee.

Prices and selections can change. Revisit the Sportsbet market before relying on a quote, and check that it is available to you. The snapshot does not establish when any individual price was last updated or what another operator would have offered at the same time.

A bookmaker listing is also distinct from constitutional eligibility, a formal candidacy and a party nomination. Each is a separate question, and the election remains uncertain even after the parties choose nominees.

Which presidential market are you comparing?

Presidential betting markets can look similar while asking different questions. An election-winner market concerns the result specified in its terms. A party nomination market concerns who becomes that party’s nominee; the nominee can then lose the general election. A party-winner market asks which party wins, rather than which named person does.

A market on the next person to become president could potentially include a change of officeholder before the election, depending on its wording. Under the 25th Amendment, the vice president becomes president if the president dies, resigns or is removed. A vice president serving as acting president is a separate constitutional situation.

Do not assume that a particular market covers succession merely because its title says “next president”. The Sportsbet snapshot above is a 2028 election market, not a verified succession-market quote. As a separate rule example, bet365 Australia says its US election bets settle on the election winner, not the person inaugurated; that rule does not establish that bet365 offers the same 2028 market or price.

Before comparing two prices, make sure they answer the same question. A higher price on a nominee is not directly comparable with a lower price on an election winner if the bets have different conditions.

• Identify the outcome: election winner, winning party, nominee or next officeholder.
• Check the election or period covered, including whether an earlier succession is addressed.
• Read the selection name and the event that triggers settlement.
• Check the treatment of withdrawal, ineligibility, postponement and disputed results.

How to read US presidential election odds

US presidential election odds in Australian decimal format show the total return for each dollar staked on a winning selection, including the original stake. A shorter decimal price represents a higher raw implied probability than a longer one.

For a hypothetical example, suppose you stake A$10 at decimal odds of 4.00. If the selection wins and the bet is settled at that price, the total return is A$40, including the A$10 stake. The profit is A$30 before any applicable fees. If the selection loses, the A$10 stake is lost.

The raw implied probability in that example is 1 divided by 4.00, or 25%. This translates the quote into a percentage; it is not proof that the person’s true chance is exactly 25%.

Bookmaker prices generally include a margin, so the implied probabilities for even a complete field can add to more than 100%. The snapshot above includes only selected names and cannot establish the full-market margin. Trading activity, liquidity and the bookmaker’s risk management can also affect prices.

When learning how to read election odds, compare like with like: use the same event, the same selection and a quote from roughly the same time. Check whether exchange commission or other applicable fees would reduce a return before comparing an exchange price with a bookmaker’s price.

Settlement, withdrawals and the election timetable

The next scheduled US presidential election is on 7 November 2028. Electors normally vote in December, Congress normally counts electoral votes in early January, and the next scheduled inauguration is on 20 January 2029. These are stages in the election process, not promises about when a bookmaker will settle a market.

Sportsbet’s general election rules say markets are generally all-in unless otherwise stated. Its rules for “next president or similar” say stakes are not refunded if a selection withdraws, is ineligible or fails to stand, unless otherwise stated. Under an all-in rule, placing a bet well before nominations may therefore mean risking the stake even if the selected person never appears on the ballot.

The operator’s rules also allow projected information to be used for settlement. However, the detailed US presidential examples on its accessible rules page are labelled 2024. Their particular projection, concession and fallback provisions should not be assumed to apply to the 2028 market without confirmation.

No accessible 2028-specific treatment of recounts, delayed results or succession was verified for this guide. Other operators can use different rules: bet365’s published US election rule, for example, refers to the election winner rather than the person inaugurated. Check the current market blurb and ask the operator if an important point remains unclear.

The election process itself can continue after election night. A close result or legal dispute may affect when the outcome is clear, while a market’s wording determines what information the operator can use and when it may settle.

• Withdrawal or failure to stand: does the bet remain valid, or is a refund available?
• Ineligibility: are stakes returned if a listed person cannot hold or contest the office?
• Settlement trigger: does the rule refer to a projection, official result or another event?
• Delayed or disputed result: are recounts, postponement or challenges addressed?
• Market-specific wording: does it qualify the operator’s general election rule?

What can move presidential odds?

Nominations, polling, debates, economic developments and withdrawals can all influence how a bookmaker prices a market. Money entering the market and the operator’s exposure may also matter. These are possible influences, not verified explanations for a particular price change in the snapshot above.

For example, if a listed person withdraws, an operator may adjust the prices of remaining selections. That change does not by itself tell an existing customer whether their original bet will be refunded; the applicable withdrawal rule does.

Polls and odds answer different questions. A poll measures respondents’ stated views at a particular time, while a bookmaker’s quote reflects its pricing and trading conditions. A candidate’s share of a poll is not directly equivalent to that candidate’s probability of winning. Neither a poll nor a betting price guarantees the result.

US election betting for readers in Australia

Some Australian-licensed bookmakers list US election markets. Sportsbet’s public page lists the 2028 presidential election, and the Australian Communications and Media Authority’s register lists Sportsbet Pty Ltd under the Northern Territory Racing and Wagering Commission. The Northern Territory also lists political elections among declared events, subject to conditions.

That does not establish access for every customer or in every state and territory. Sportsbet’s general account terms require account holders to be at least 18 and reside in Australia. Location, account checks, the operator’s rules and other applicable requirements can affect whether a particular market is available.

For US election betting odds Australia readers should first check the operator in ACMA’s register, then check the specific market and its rules. A public price page is not proof that an individual customer can place a bet.

Do not assume an overseas prediction market has the same protections as an Australian-licensed bookmaker. Moneysmart says no prediction-market operators are licensed to operate in Australia and warns that Australian retail users of unlicensed platforms may have reduced protections.

Time zones are another practical consideration. As an illustration, 7:00 pm in Washington, DC on 7 November 2028 corresponds to 11:00 am AEDT in Sydney on 8 November, assuming published daylight-saving schedules remain unchanged. This is not a stated poll-closing time: polling places across the US close at different times. Convert the time of the specific event you are following rather than relying on a year-round offset.

• Check the operator’s licence and trading name using ACMA’s register.
• Confirm your location and account eligibility with the operator.
• Read the actual market wording, settlement conditions and any applicable fees.
• Convert the time of a named event to your own Australian time zone.

FAQ

Who is eligible to become US president?

The basic constitutional requirements are natural-born US citizenship, a minimum age of 35 and 14 years of US residency. The 22nd Amendment separately limits election to the presidency, generally to two elections, with an additional restriction for someone who served more than two years of another person’s elected term. A bookmaker listing is not proof of eligibility, candidacy or nomination.

Do the shortest odds predict the winner?

The shortest odds indicate the highest raw implied probability among the prices being compared, not a certain winner. In the dated snapshot, 4.50 was shorter than 6.50, but the figures came from selected names at one bookmaker. They are not an official forecast or evidence that every operator agreed.

What happens if a listed person withdraws?

It depends on the operator and the market rules. Sportsbet’s general rules for next-president or similar markets say stakes are not refunded for withdrawal, ineligibility or failure to stand unless otherwise stated. Check the specific market blurb before assuming a refund, because another operator or a market-specific condition may differ.

Can Australians bet on the 2028 US presidential election?

Some Australian-licensed bookmakers list US election betting markets, and Sportsbet has a public page for the 2028 election. Access to a particular market depends on the operator, your location, account eligibility and applicable rules. Check the provider in ACMA’s register and confirm availability rather than assuming the public page guarantees access.

When is a presidential bet settled?

The applicable market terms determine settlement. An operator may specify a projection, an election winner or another trigger; bet365’s published US election rule distinguishes the winner from the person inaugurated. Do not assume settlement will occur on election night or that Sportsbet’s detailed 2024 presidential provisions automatically apply to 2028.

Is the next president always the 2028 election winner?

No. Succession could produce a new president before the scheduled election. Whether that matters to a bet depends on the event and wording: a 2028 election-winner market is not necessarily the same as a hypothetical market on the next person to become president.