Betting odds on the referendum: what the 2023 Voice market showed

2023 Voice referendum odds: the historical snapshot

The Voice referendum asked Australians to decide whether to approve a proposed constitutional alteration to recognise the First Peoples of Australia by establishing an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice. It was a single federal referendum question.

In an article about the vote, Bets.com.au reported a BlueBet market framed around whether Australia would vote Yes to the Voice referendum. The publisher stated that the following decimal prices were correct on 13 October 2023:

The lower No price made it the favoured selection in that reported snapshot. The higher Yes price offered a larger potential return for the same stake, reflecting a less favoured selection in the bookmaker's pricing.

There are important limits to the evidence. The prices come from a third-party publisher, not a verified archived bookmaker screen or a complete market contract. The report did not state the time the prices were captured, and the original settlement terms were not found. They should not be described as closing odds or assumed to have been available throughout the day.

A different publisher reported BlueBet prices of $4.75 for Yes and $1.15 for No in September. That earlier observation is another dated snapshot, not a complete record of how prices moved or an explanation of why they changed.

• Yes: $5.75, as reported for 13 October 2023.
• No: $1.09, as reported for 13 October 2023.
• Reported provider: BlueBet. Reporting publisher: Bets.com.au.
• Capture time and original market terms: not supplied.

How to read Yes and No odds

Australian bookmakers commonly express prices as decimal odds. A smaller decimal price indicates a more favoured outcome in that set of prices; a larger one indicates a less favoured outcome. Decimal odds also allow a reader to calculate a potential total return, including the original stake.

To convert a decimal price into a raw implied probability, divide one by the odds and multiply by 100. Using the reported 13 October prices, $1.09 for No gives approximately 91.74%, while $5.75 for Yes gives approximately 17.39%.

These are price-derived figures, not statements that the outcomes had those exact chances. In particular, the 91.74% figure does not mean 91.74% of voters intended to vote No. A price on a market outcome and the share of voters choosing an answer are different measures.

The two raw implied probabilities add up to approximately 109.13%, rather than 100%. In a two-outcome bookmaker market, the amount above 100% is commonly called the overround. It reflects pricing that includes a margin, but it does not establish how much profit the bookmaker actually made.

For a hypothetical return, a winning $10 bet at decimal odds of $5.75 would generally return $57.50, including the $10 stake. The amount above the original stake would be $47.50. A losing bet would lose the stake, and any actual return would depend on the bet and its terms. This example does not describe a verified historical bet or payout.

What odds, polls and the result each tell you

Referendum betting odds, opinion polls and official counts all relate to the same public event, but they answer different questions. Treating them as interchangeable can make a historical market look more precise than the evidence supports.

The reported No price of $1.09 was a bookmaker price on a market selection. Its reciprocal gives a raw implied probability, with the pricing margin still present. It is not a survey of voters.

YouGov's final pre-vote poll, published on 12 October 2023, reported 56% No, 38% Yes and 6% undecided. It surveyed 1,519 voters from 6 to 10 October. Those percentages describe reported voting intentions among respondents at that time, including people who were undecided.

The Australian Electoral Commission's final national count was 60.06% No and 39.94% Yes among formal votes. That is the official result, not a forecast. The poll included undecided responses, whereas the result records formal votes cast for one of the two answers.

The reported No price and the poll both pointed towards No before voting, and No ultimately received the larger share of formal votes. That does not mean the raw implied probability can be compared directly with the poll's No percentage, or that a favoured outcome is certain to occur.

In general, bookmakers may consider their assessment of an event, customer demand, risk management and new information when setting prices. Polls can differ because of sampling, question wording, timing and changes in opinion. Those are general possibilities; the available evidence does not establish why a particular Voice market price moved.

• Odds describe a price on a defined market outcome.
• Polls describe surveyed responses at a particular time and are subject to methodological uncertainty.
• The official result describes votes counted under electoral rules.

How the Voice referendum result was decided

A federal constitutional referendum must satisfy a double majority to pass. First, more than half of the formal votes counted nationally must be Yes. Second, a majority of voters in at least four of Australia's six states must vote Yes.

Votes from the Australian Capital Territory and the Northern Territory count towards the national majority. The territories do not, however, count as states when determining whether at least four states have recorded a Yes majority.

This distinction matters because a national Yes majority alone would not be enough to approve a constitutional alteration. The required state majorities would also have to be achieved. These are rules for Australian federal constitutional referendums, not necessarily for state votes, overseas referendums or plebiscites.

In 2023, the proposal did not meet either part of the test. Nationally, 39.94% of formal votes were Yes and 60.06% were No. No also received a majority in all six states.

The Electoral Commissioner announced the mathematically certain outcome on 27 October 2023. The return of the writ formally confirmed the result on 6 November 2023. These electoral milestones are distinct from any bookmaker settlement rule: the original BlueBet market terms were not found, so neither date can be assumed to have triggered payment.

Checking a different or future referendum market in Australia

The Voice vote has concluded, and no current market for that completed outcome was verified. The existence of a historical market does not establish that a bookmaker will offer a market on another referendum.

Availability can vary between providers. During the 2023 campaign, The Guardian reported that BlueBet was offering a Voice market while several major operators said they would not offer one. That report describes availability at the time; it does not establish which providers offered markets throughout the entire campaign.

For a different or future event, start by identifying exactly what is being offered. A market question, its possible selections and its settlement rules may not map neatly onto the electoral rules. The difference matters especially where an Australian constitutional proposal needs both a national and a state majority.

Australian gambling regulation is shared between the Australian Government and state and territory governments. The ACMA maintains a register of licensed interactive gambling providers, but a provider's presence on that register does not confirm that a particular market is offered, that it is available in every location or that a customer is eligible.

Online wagering customers must complete identity verification before placing a bet. Check the provider's current requirements and the rules that apply in your jurisdiction; do not assume that conditions reported for a past market still apply.

• Event: Confirm the referendum, the question, the available selections and the deadline.
• Provider: Check the ACMA register and the relevant licensing authority.
• Outcome: Read how each selection is defined and which result or source determines settlement.
• Changes: Check the rules for recounts, cancellation, postponement and void bets.
• Eligibility: Review current identity-verification requirements and any applicable location restrictions.

Risk and support

A bet can lose its entire stake, and a price can change before a bet is placed. Readers who want to follow a referendum do not need to bet: electoral authorities publish official results, while pollsters publish surveys and their methodologies.

For gambling support, the Gambling Helpline on 1800 858 858 is free, confidential and available 24 hours a day, seven days a week. BetStop offers free national self-exclusion from licensed Australian online and telephone wagering providers; it does not cover every form of gambling.

FAQ

What did Yes and No referendum odds mean?

They were decimal prices on the selections in a specified market. The reported Voice market asked whether Australia would vote Yes, but the original settlement terms were not found. Those terms would be needed to confirm precisely how the bookmaker defined and settled the No selection.

Are referendum betting odds the same as opinion polls?

No. Odds are prices on defined outcomes; polls report surveyed intentions at a particular time and are subject to uncertainty. An implied probability derived from a price is not the same measure as the percentage of respondents who say they intend to vote No or Yes.

Can Australians bet on the 2023 Voice referendum now?

The vote has concluded and its result has been formally confirmed. A market was reported before the vote, but no current market for the completed outcome was verified. That does not establish whether a provider will offer a market on a different or future referendum.

How were Voice referendum bets settled?

The original BlueBet market's settlement terms were not found, so its settlement trigger and timing cannot be confirmed. The AEC's confirmation of the electoral result does not, by itself, establish the bookmaker's rules or payment date.

Are the quoted $5.75 and $1.09 odds current?

No. Bets.com.au reported $5.75 for Yes and $1.09 for No as prices correct on 13 October 2023. The publisher did not state a capture time, and the figures should not be presented as live or verified closing prices.

Did a 91.74% implied probability mean 91.74% would vote No?

No. Approximately 91.74% is the reciprocal of the reported $1.09 No price, expressed as a percentage. It is a raw price-derived figure, not an estimate of No's share of votes. The two reported prices also produced an overround, so their raw implied probabilities totalled more than 100%.

Did the Voice need a national majority or a majority of states?

It needed both: a national majority of formal votes in favour and Yes majorities in at least four of the six states. Territory votes counted towards the national figure but not as states for the state-majority test. The proposal achieved neither requirement.